Crash Concepts

• Metal loses its mettle: Alcoa (AA) cuts like crazy even though it is profitable
• More observations on the economy, and none of them good
• Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 15-16, 2008 
• German billionaire Merckle takes his life amidst financial crisis 
• Economic slump weakens pending home sales 
• A sign that credit is going to flow (chart)?
• The very flawed weekly mortgage applications survey
• Auto sales (chart)

One of my chief concerns is that our leaders in DC do not really understand the nature of this crisis and are therefore going to either perform ineffective actions or, worse, harmful ones.

I have been silently crossing my fingers beneath the table, hoping that Obama’s team would figure out that this crisis is unique and will require some non-status-quo solutions.

Although I titled this "Analyzing the Obama Plan," this is neither a partisan nor political posting, and not even as much a critique of Obama himself as it is an examination of how the DC machinery currently operates.  No one person controls much more than a sliver of the overall process and results that emanate from DC.

Now that there’s finally some meat on the plan which we can react to, let’s parse the numbers.

• U.S. auto sales continue to skid 
• November 2008 construction at $1,078.4 billion annual rate
• Office vacancies soaring, rents falling in major cities 
• Preview: pending home sales to fall for third straight month 
• Hoteliers see too much room at the inn 
• The problem of "Burn Rate" hits mainstream companies 
• New York Fed begins MBS purchase program 
• By the numbers - How 2008 shakes out  
• Obama says economy 'getting worse' 
• Gold Wars (Audio)

Well, as always, I let my need for quality get in the way of punctuality, but the podcast recorded on Friday is now ready for subscribers.

Ron had to make significant upgrades to the site to enable the podcast to be played right from the page (plus other serious fixes regarding file management, but that's already too much information).

The podcasts will be easier and smoother to produce from here on out and I am very much looking forward to enhancing and perfecting this additional means of communicating with the supporters of this site.

You can access podcast via the drop down menu at the top of the page under "Stay Current".

Or you can follow this link.

There are still a few spots available at Rowe.  We know, it's neither in a particularly warm nor accessible place  (especially in Feb!), but it's a unique place and we had a very powerful experience there last year.  This year will be even better.

Many of you have been looking for some more information regarding the content of the Rowe Seminar (Feb 6-8, Rowe MA). Quite a few of you have wondered whether there will be anything you don’t already know from having already watched the Crash Course.

This post will hopefully answer your questions.

• Can the US economy afford a Keynesian stimulus?
• Fighting off depression
• Obama  makes new pitch, promises on job creation -- including 600,000 new government employees
• Obama eyes $300 billion tax cut
• Tech, one of the last hopes for consumer spending, hits the exits
• As vacant office space grows, so does lenders' crisis
• Interesting series on bailout
• New home sales and unemployment
• Cut oil sales to Israel's backers-Iranian commander

• 2008 Job Losses Probably Worst Since 1945: U.S.
• Barons Video: Stay Away from Treasury Bonds
• Upgrading The US Energy Grid: A Trillion Dollar Problem?
• Paulson says crisis sown by imbalance
• Commercial real estate in for tough 2009  

• I.O.U.S.A. Four Deficits: Budget, Savings, Trade & Leadership (Warms up @ the 25 minute point)
• Less than a week to read the $1 trillion bill before voting?
• Steel industry hopes for big stimulus shot 
• Homes For the Holidays
• How David Rosenberg foresaw the crash 
• NotSince the '30s (Chart S&P)
• Why We're Still Happy
• Paradigm lost

• China factories cut output at record pace:
• Manufacturing Index Hits Lowest Level Since 1980
• As Recession Deepens, So Does Milk Surplus
• Average Annual Unemployment Rate - Then and Now (Chart)
• Unemployment Rate (Shadow Stats Chart)
• The Year in Markets (Interactive Chart)
• Selling gold jewelry
• Russia cuts off gas deliveries to Ukraine
• Report: Toyota developing solar powered green car